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Packaging Corp. Gears Up for Q3 Earnings: What to Expect?
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Key Takeaways
Packaging Corporation of America is expected to report Q3 revenues of $2.56 billion, up 10.8% year over year.
Packaging segment volumes are projected to rise 5.5%, with price and mix improving 2.7% amid strong demand.
Higher freight and recycled fiber costs may hurt margins, partly offset by improved employee benefit costs.
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 21, after the closing bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.56 billion, indicating 10.8% growth from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.95 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG’s third-quarter earnings has remained unchanged in the past 60 days. The estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 8.1%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PKG’s Earnings Surprise History
Packaging Corp.’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, with the average surprise being 1.27%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils for Packaging Corp.
Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is precisely the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Packaging Corp. has an Earnings ESP of +0.71%.
Zacks Rank: PKG currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped PKG’s Q3 Performance
Packaging Corp. acquired the containerboard business of Greif, Inc. (GEF - Free Report) in September 2025. The acquired business included two containerboard mills with about 800,000 tons of production capacity and eight sheet feeder and corrugated plants across the United States. Contributions from the acquired Greif business, as well as strong demand for packaging products, are likely to have aided the Packaging segment in the to-be-reported quarter.
The third quarter had one more shipping day than the second quarter of 2026, supporting higher shipments. The segment is also expected to have seen price and mix improvement in the third quarter, reflecting price increases implemented by the company. Packaging mill production is likely to have benefited from an additional operating day, fewer annual maintenance outages and improved operating performance across the containerboard mill system.
Our model projects Packaging segment volumes to increase 5.5% year over year, accelerating from the 2.9% growth reported in the second quarter of 2026. Price and mix are expected to have improved 2.7% in the quarter. The segment had reported a 2.9% volume decline in the third quarter of 2025. The revenue estimate for the Packaging segment stands at $2.3 billion, implying 8.3% growth from the year-ago quarter. Our model projects operating income of $394 million, up 13.3% from the prior-year period.
In the Paper segment, a planned mill maintenance outage is expected to have constrained sequential volume growth. However, continued implementation of previously announced paper price increases is likely to have supported pricing. Our model projects a 3% improvement in price and mix compared with 1.4% in the second quarter of 2026. Paper segment volumes are expected to have increased 5% year over year, moderating from the 6.2% growth reported in the second quarter but improving from the 0.6% decline recorded in the third quarter of 2025.
The Paper segment’s third-quarter revenues are estimated at $174 million, up 8.1% from the year-ago quarter. Operating income is projected at $46.8 million, up 31.5% year over year.
On the cost front, higher freight expenses and recycled fiber prices are expected to have weighed on margins relative to the second quarter of 2026. Increased mill production is also likely to have driven higher chemical and electricity consumption. These pressures are likely to have been partly offset by improved employee benefit costs, as unfavorable costs incurred in the second quarter are not expected to have recurred in the third quarter.
PKG had guided third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $2.91 per share, suggesting 6.6% year-over-year growth and a 24% sequential improvement.
PKG’s Price Performance
Over the past year, PKG shares have gained 13.3% compared with the industry’s 3.4% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some other companies with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ball’s third-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.06 per share, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 3.9%. BALL has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 3.9%.
W.W Grainger Inc. (GWW - Free Report) , slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +0.83% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Grainger’s third-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $11.64 per share, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 14%. Grainger has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 5.9%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Packaging Corp. Gears Up for Q3 Earnings: What to Expect?
Key Takeaways
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 21, after the closing bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.56 billion, indicating 10.8% growth from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.95 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG’s third-quarter earnings has remained unchanged in the past 60 days. The estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 8.1%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PKG’s Earnings Surprise History
Packaging Corp.’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, with the average surprise being 1.27%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils for Packaging Corp.
Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is precisely the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Packaging Corp. has an Earnings ESP of +0.71%.
Zacks Rank: PKG currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped PKG’s Q3 Performance
Packaging Corp. acquired the containerboard business of Greif, Inc. (GEF - Free Report) in September 2025. The acquired business included two containerboard mills with about 800,000 tons of production capacity and eight sheet feeder and corrugated plants across the United States. Contributions from the acquired Greif business, as well as strong demand for packaging products, are likely to have aided the Packaging segment in the to-be-reported quarter.
The third quarter had one more shipping day than the second quarter of 2026, supporting higher shipments. The segment is also expected to have seen price and mix improvement in the third quarter, reflecting price increases implemented by the company. Packaging mill production is likely to have benefited from an additional operating day, fewer annual maintenance outages and improved operating performance across the containerboard mill system.
Our model projects Packaging segment volumes to increase 5.5% year over year, accelerating from the 2.9% growth reported in the second quarter of 2026. Price and mix are expected to have improved 2.7% in the quarter. The segment had reported a 2.9% volume decline in the third quarter of 2025. The revenue estimate for the Packaging segment stands at $2.3 billion, implying 8.3% growth from the year-ago quarter. Our model projects operating income of $394 million, up 13.3% from the prior-year period.
In the Paper segment, a planned mill maintenance outage is expected to have constrained sequential volume growth. However, continued implementation of previously announced paper price increases is likely to have supported pricing. Our model projects a 3% improvement in price and mix compared with 1.4% in the second quarter of 2026. Paper segment volumes are expected to have increased 5% year over year, moderating from the 6.2% growth reported in the second quarter but improving from the 0.6% decline recorded in the third quarter of 2025.
The Paper segment’s third-quarter revenues are estimated at $174 million, up 8.1% from the year-ago quarter. Operating income is projected at $46.8 million, up 31.5% year over year.
On the cost front, higher freight expenses and recycled fiber prices are expected to have weighed on margins relative to the second quarter of 2026. Increased mill production is also likely to have driven higher chemical and electricity consumption. These pressures are likely to have been partly offset by improved employee benefit costs, as unfavorable costs incurred in the second quarter are not expected to have recurred in the third quarter.
PKG had guided third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $2.91 per share, suggesting 6.6% year-over-year growth and a 24% sequential improvement.
PKG’s Price Performance
Over the past year, PKG shares have gained 13.3% compared with the industry’s 3.4% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some other companies with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.
Ball Corporation (BALL - Free Report) , slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 3, has an Earnings ESP of +0.26% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ball’s third-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.06 per share, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 3.9%. BALL has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 3.9%.
W.W Grainger Inc. (GWW - Free Report) , slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +0.83% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Grainger’s third-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $11.64 per share, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 14%. Grainger has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 5.9%.